Can Species Distribution Models Improve Conservation Translocation Outcomes For Rare Plants?

Species extinction rates are on the rise and conservation translocations offer a tool to create new, viable populations to reduce extinction risk. However, translocations often fail due to the challenge of identifying suitable habitat at new sites. Microsite conditions, herbivore presence, and competition are important factors in translocation outcomes, but a broader-scale estimate of overall habitat suitability might also improve translocation success. We tested the ability of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict translocation outcomes for two, rare herbaceous plant species in southern Ontario, Canada. We planted seedlings and adult plants into 12, one-hectare sites with varying SDM-predicted habitat suitability. We used Generalized Linear Mixed Models to assess the ability of the SDMs to predict survival, flowering, and seedling recruitment over two years, while controlling for effects of microsite conditions and biotic interactions. The SDM did not predict short-term survival, but it did predict flowering and seedling recruitment: more plants flowered, and more seedlings were produced within higher predicted suitability sites. We also found significant effects of microsite and biotic interactions. Our results suggest SDMs may be effective at targeting suitable sites to maximize long-term persistence of translocated populations.