From Prediction to Propagation: Modeling Seed Longevity and Enhancing Germination for Conservation

Seed conservation plays a critical role in safeguarding plant biodiversity, particularly for rare and endangered species with limited seed availability. This presentation explores two complementary approaches to optimizing ex situ seed conservation: modeling seed longevity using probit analysis and enhancing germination through embryo excision. Probit analysis has long been used to model seed viability loss over time, forming the foundation of the widely applied seed viability equation. In a recent paper we present R-based code for three scenarios: 1) fitting a single survival curve, 2) fitting multiple survival curves with hypothesis testing, and 3) modeling the effects of moisture and temperature on seed longevity. These methods are essential for refining seed storage strategies and can also be applied to pollen and spore viability studies. In parallel, we highlight embryo excision as an underutilized but highly effective technique for breaking physiological dormancy in Asteraceae species. We demonstrate how this simple yet powerful method can significantly enhance germination rates, synchronize seedling development, and enable early seed viability assessment. Together, these approaches provide conservation practitioners with valuable tools to predict, extend, and maximize seed viability while ensuring the successful propagation of threatened plant species. By integrating predictive modeling with targeted germination enhancement, we can improve the efficiency of ex situ conservation programs and support the long-term survival of global plant biodiversity.